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In Chang’s book that probably sets him ten thousand seats below the salt

In Chang’s book, that probably sets him ten thousand seats below the salt. But Studwell’s book is the real McChoy.The China Dream is a finely researched, important and cautionary contribution to our understanding of contemporary China, not least because of its mature grasp of Chinese history. Having set the scene by summarising previous encounters between Western avarice and Chinese determination to defend the domestic market, the author charts superbly the “liberalisation” of China’s economy since Mao’s death in 1976.Studwell seems to have all the facts at his fingertips. His is not just a big-picture account, but a whole-picture account He knows about the army, and utilities He understands the international setting. If, by 2000, outsiders had invested an unprecedented $350bn in China, that was because in 1992 – when Deng Xiaoping mounted an absurdly effective campaign to revitalise interest in the wake of Tiananmen Square – there was, as Studwell reminds us, virtually nowhere else for global capital to go. Western economies were stagnant, and the latest white hope, Russia, was already floundering.Much inward investment came from expatriate Chinese tycoons in the Far East But as much emanated from America and Europe.

One by one, the greatest Western businesses queued outside the Politburo’s doors, wallets in hand. And one by one they were badly burned.China had no intention of paying a cent more than it had to for the technology transfer vital for repackaging the country as a modern power. A few companies, notably McDonald’s and the phone giants Nokia, Ericsson and Motorola, prospered So has boot-licking Rupert Murdoch. But their success only encouraged such multi-million dollar losers as McDonnell Douglas and Goldman Sachs.

In retrospect, it was the greatest sting of all time.Yet, even now, interest in China is rekindling, with China’s value as an ally against Islamic fundamentalism clocked. As Studwell declares, the allure of a market comprising a quarter of mankind has been too tempting to ignore, for all that 80 per cent of China’s population is too poor to afford Western consumables and likely to remain so.Like Chang, Studwell observes the plight of China’s banking system and its public sector enterprises, and concedes stern troubles lie ahead. But he does not believe WTO entry will necessarily induce an unravelling. One way or another, Beijing’s bureaucracy will find ways to obfuscate free-trade prescriptions. So China will go on muddling through.Internally, the omens are less propitious. Among many Chinese there is growing dismay at the endemic lack of governmental accountability.

Jiang’s groomed successor, Hu Jintao, slated to be in the hot seat by 2003, is an ideologue whose credentials include high office in Tibet. To the party’s progressive arrivistes and corrupt placemen alike, he may prove less than acceptable. Conversely, memories of revolutionary upheaval are sufficiently fresh to deter repetition. In Studwell’s steadfastly sober assessment, any prophecy is simply silly Reality, he says, is the mess in the middle..