UFO Info Week-End

Indeed just as the Conservatives more or less unite over their impractical European policies another party

Indeed, just as the Conservatives more or less unite over their impractical European policies, another party comes along threatening to split their vote.The Conservatives still face a less daunting task than the one undertaken by Neil Kinnock in the 1980s. At yesterday’s packed Independent fringe meeting the rise of UKIP was raised more than any other issue. The newest recruit to the Shadow Cabinet, John Redwood, got the biggest cheer by suggesting that Britain would be on the margins of the EU under a Conservative government. The former foreign secretary Sir Malcolm Rifkind was less evangelical, arguing it would take a “long time” for a Tory government to renegotiate all the existing EU treaties. When he first became leader Mr Howard worried ministers as he reached out to the broader electorate. Mr Blair relaxed when the Conservative leader appeared to follow the same route as the one taken by his predecessor but one, William Hague. It was Mr Hague who in his early days donned a baseball cap and visited Notting Hill Carnival, symbols of a new approach.

When the polls did not move in his favour he panicked, got a crew-cut, swung to the right and lost the election by a landslide.Senior ministers and Liberal Democrats regard Mr Howard’s recent reshuffle as a defining moment John Bercow, a leading moderniser, was sacked John Redwood was brought back. Mr Bercow made a fleeting appearance in Bournemouth yesterday, speaking at a fringe meeting in which he argued that the Conservative Party should at least match Labour’s spending commitments on international development. Mr Bercow is not in fashion in the Bournemouth conference, but his views resonate elsewhere. Some senior Liberal Democrats and Labour politicians have recently expressed their admiration for him.Evidently, Conservative activists are more worried by the rise of UKIP than the threat posed by Labour or the Liberal Democrats. In his recent book, the former adviser to Mr Blair, Derek Scott, confirms that policies are devised in Government partly to wrong-foot the Conservatives, pushing them further to the right.

At some point Mr Blair’s determined triangulation, a superficial form of policy-making, will cause a crisis for the centre left, but for now the Tories are the ones who are wrong-footed, moving further to the right whenever the Prime Minister clicks his fingers.After seven years of fruitless opposition they should realise that this does not work, striding assertively to the margins. Some of their big political personalities lost their seats, while others gave up, exhausted and demoralised, all political ambition spent.Those that remain active fall for every political trick devised by Tony Blair. Having spent 18 years in power they are not used to the techniques of opposing a government The reverse is also true. After 18 years in opposition, the Labour Government is still learning how to rule. In the Conservatives’ case the scale of their two election defeats in 1997 and 2001 heightens their problems. If they had opposed the war against Iraq, I suspect that Mr Blair would have been much warier of supporting the conflict with such passionate enthusiasm. Conversely, if the Conservatives had supported the Euro Mr Blair might have dared to hold a referendum.

Meanwhile, the tensions at the top of the Government relate partly to the degree that ministers should pay homage to their Thatcherite inheritance. The Tories should be preening themselves rather than falling apart. Even in their decline they constrain and influence the actions of a Prime Minister who was brought up politically in the late 1970s and 1980s when he faced a triumphant Conservative Party.That is part of the Conservatives’ problem now They are not very good at opposition. Yet the most powerful newspapers are still on the right and some national broadcasters are inadvertently influenced by their tone. A timid Labour Government is frightened of raising taxes or adopting a more pro-European tone. Even after seven years in power, New Labour insiders are under pressure to devise “radical” policies for the next manifesto that do not have any cost implications.