UFO Info Week-End

Mr Adams has demonstrated no desire for a return to the killing

Mr Adams has demonstrated no desire for a return to the killing. He seems to have accepted some time ago that military victory was not achievable in Ulster. He won nationalist plaudits by attacking London last weekend, but Mr Bruton is by instinct anti-republican. Albert Reynolds, the then Taoiseach, was at one with Gerry Adams and prepared to press Sinn Fein’s case with London. In contrast, Mr Reynolds’ successor, John Bruton, is far less friendly with Sinn Fein. But, complain republicans, most are security measures that would have been ordered if the IRA had been defeated, rather than concessions to a supposedly potent force.Many republicans feel that the potential gains envisaged one year ago have not been fulfilled Twelve months ago Sinn Fein was on a roll. There seems to be less to lose.So does this mean it is only a matter of time before the Provisional IRA eventually takes up arms again?There is certainly frustration among northern republicans.

Sir Patrick Mayhew, the Northern Ireland Secretary, speaks of the many changes since peace broke out. Now, after such a long stalemate, the opprobrium is diminished. They would have feared being rounded upon by the rest of the republican community for endangering potential gains from the peace process. The activities of this fundamentalist splinter group do not signal a general breakdown in the cease-fire, to which the IRA apparently remains committed.But the fact that a bombing was even considered indicates a change in the atmosphere in Northern Ireland. A few months ago, as one republican remarked, even extremists would not have contemplated such a “spectacular”.

Police believe that the massive bomb was to be used in an attack on a security target in Northern Ireland.Amid the political stalemate, is peace breaking down?No, is the immediate answer. Last week’s foiled bombing was not the work of the Provisional IRA, by far the best-armed republican element. The blame has been laid on the military wing of Republican Sinn Fein, which broke away from the Provisionals in 1986. It is a small, insignificant group, which claims to be the guardian of purist, uncompromising republican ideals. A week ago the Irish police discovered 1,700lbs of explosives just across the border in the Republic. President Clinton’s planned visit later this month to Belfast, Dublin and London may be abandoned and, in any case, holds little prospect of breaking through the impasse.Worse still, there are signs that guns and bombs are being taken from arsenals that have remained undisturbed for months. The Provisionals have, in a rare public statement, refused point blank to make the gesture, leaving neither side with much room for manoeuvre.Meanwhile, the relationship between the Irish Republic and Britain – the rock upon which a settlement could be built – has deteriorated of late.

Britain will not sanction them until the IRA makes at least a token surrender of arms. Their early release shows how the peace process can still deliver results. But today’s scenes will mask a dangerous reality: progress towards a political settlement, the vital underpinning of peace, is in deep trouble.Fifteen months after the IRA laid down its arms, all-party talks look like no more than a distant hope. But Government has backtracked before, could do so again.Today more than 80 republican and loyalist prisoners will walk free from Northern Ireland’s jails.